Who drove the marriage rate decline in the wake of the Great Recession?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20377/jfr-1378Keywords:
Marriage rate decline, the Great Recession, Das Gupta rate decomposition, Union formation, CohabitationAbstract
Objective: I examine whether the substantial decline in the marriage rate in Denmark following the Great Recession is equally distributed among sociodemographic groups.
Background: Since the beginning of the second demographic transition, marriage rates have been declining in the Western world. While the European Union’s marriage rate stabilized during the late 1990s and the early 2000s, it declined again following the Great Recession. If this decline is driven by certain groups, existing inequalities in the benefits associated with marriage may be exacerbated.
Method: Applying Das Gupta's (1993) rate decomposition method to Danish administrative data, I investigate compositional changes between the group who gets married prior to and after the onset of the decline across five sociodemographic covariates. To assess the nature of the decline, I investigate three transitions into union formation: i) single to cohabitation, ii) single to marriage, and iii) cohabitation to marriage.
Results: I find that all groups across age, income, children, marriage history, and employment status contribute to the marriage rate decline and that these contributions reflect behavioral changes. Comparing the three transitions into union formation, I find that people continue to cohabit but become less inclined to marry.
Conclusion: My findings suggest that the marriage decline following the Great Recession was largely equally distributed among groups and likely led to a perpetuation of existing inequalities in the benefits associated with marriage.
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